GTA VI Could Outshine Hollywood’s Biggest November Releases Before Opening Weekend

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Grand Theft Auto VI has not reached stores, yet its pre-orders already exceed the domestic run of the year’s second-highest-grossing film. The game launches Nov. 19 into a month when theaters face a thin slate.

Analytics firm Sensor Tower estimates the game had drawn 6.45 million digital pre-orders worth about $630 million as of Oct. 20. That figure excludes physical copies and reflects global sales before the game’s release.

Rockstar Games will release Grand Theft Auto VI on Nov. 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. [Grand Theft Auto VI, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rockstar Games will release Grand Theft Auto VI on Nov. 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. [Grand Theft Auto VI, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Pre-Orders Outpace Box Office Hits

That haul tops the roughly $625 million domestic run of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The comparison is imperfect, since the game figure is global and the film total is domestic.

The haul is also more than 11 times what every movie in North American theaters grossed over Halloween weekend. Overall ticket sales came to about $56 million, down more than 40% from the prior weekend, according to studio estimates.

Hunger Games Opens Into GTA Shadow

Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens Nov. 20, a day after the game launches. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range tracking puts its opening at $55 million to $65 million, the month’s biggest theatrical swing.

Against that range, the game’s global pre-orders of $630 million are nearly 10 times the high end of the projection. The previous film, 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, opened to $44.6 million.

Thanksgiving week brings Disney’s animated Hexed and Universal’s Focker In-Law, both on Nov. 25. Focker In-Law is the bigger gamble, arriving 16 years after Little Fockers, which opened to $30.8 million in 2010.

Warner Bros.’ animated The Cat in the Hat and Searchlight’s Wild Horse Nine open Nov. 6. Smaller titles such as Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol and I Play Rocky are scattered through the month.

Theaters Enter Month Weakened

A nearly three-hour Elizabeth Holmes documentary topped the domestic box office over Halloween weekend, a sign of how quiet theaters were. A24’s You Can See Everything took in $11.4 million, lifting its total to $64.7 million.

No studio opened a wide release, and the $56 million weekend was the second-lowest total of the year. Unlike Christmas, Thanksgiving or the Fourth of July, a weekend Halloween does not lift ticket sales, because people get no extra day off.

The last Saturday Halloween, in 2020, came while most theaters were shuttered. The one before, in 2015, produced the year’s weakest weekend to that point as three wide releases flopped and The Martian stayed on top in its fifth week.

GTA V Sets the Benchmark

Grand Theft Auto V generated $800 million in sales in its first 24 hours in 2013 and passed $1 billion in three days. Take-Two Interactive, the publisher, called that the fastest any entertainment property had reached the mark.

GTA V has since sold more than 230 million units, as of the publisher’s August 2026 earnings report. The sequel’s pre-orders of about $630 million equal nearly 80% of that $800 million first-day figure.

The sequel arrives 13 years after GTA V and will launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. It promises a more expansive setting than any previous title in the series. Rockstar confirmed development in February 2022.

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The game reportedly cost more than any movie ever made. Rival games have also reportedly cleared out of November rather than compete.

Pre-Sales Could Top $2 Billion

The firm says the game could reach 25 million pre-orders by release, a level that would mean more than $2 billion made before launch. That would be well above GTA V’s $800 million first-day haul.

The projection is an estimate rather than a company-reported figure. Even so, the figure shows how much revenue is riding on a single title.

Take-Two Faces High Expectations

Take-Two reported $6.66 billion in revenue in its fiscal year ended in March. The launch underpins a forecast of $8 billion to $8.2 billion in net bookings this fiscal year.

The company reports quarterly results Monday, Nov. 9, 10 days before launch, with a call at 1:30 p.m. PT (4:30 p.m. ET). CEO Strauss Zelnick and other managers are expected to face analyst and investor questions about the launch.

Big details about the game itself typically come from developer Rockstar Games, not the earnings briefing. The next report is expected in February 2027, though a hit could prompt an earlier update, as GTA V’s early sales did.

The GTA franchise accounts for less than 15% of Take-Two’s total revenue in a typical quarter. That share is expected to rise significantly once GTA VI launches.

Rockstar has not announced details of an online component, and GTA VI has been described as a single-player experience. Given GTA Online’s popularity and earning power, an eventual online component could follow, which would extend revenue.

Hollywood Plans Around the Game

Francis Lawrence, who has directed most of the Hunger Games films, acknowledged the scheduling clash, saying the game arrives around the same time as his film. “Hopefully, people find time for both,” he said.

Video games may draw a narrower audience than theatrical films. Even so, a release of this size could pull millions of players away from the big screen for at least a weekend, denting a fall box office that is already thin.

For theaters, the early numbers point to a difficult stretch. GTA VI will begin its life with hundreds of millions of dollars already booked, while Sunrise on the Reaping is projected to open at $55 million to $65 million.

Brian Joseph Yalung
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