Inside the Mystery Trading Firm Run by Two Mathletes Betting Big on the Future
Two former mathletes run one of the biggest, and maybe the least-known, trading firms in Wall Street’s hottest market: predicting the future. Alcedine Technologies, founded in 2024 by Zack Chroman and Tanner Hoke, has almost no public profile.
The firm quickly became a top-10 trader on U.S. regulated exchanges, the Wall Street Journal reported. Those include Kalshi, the prediction market whose bets on sports, elections and other events have exploded in popularity with both pros and amateurs.
![Polymarket and other prediction platforms have attracted growing attention as event contracts become more popular with retail traders. [for illustraion purposes only]](http://ourdailynewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Gemini_Generated_Image_yt3pcryt3pcryt3p.jpg)
Top market makers regularly funnel hundreds of millions or billions of dollars a month through prediction markets. Alcedine ranks among the top traders, yet on Kalshi nearly three users lose money for every user who profits, according to a company spokeswoman.
Younger Americans are piling in. Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study found about 32% of Gen Z and 24% of millennials are invested in or considering prediction markets or sports betting. Much smaller shares of Gen X are.
Alcedine’s top-10 climb in a market where most users lose
Alcedine’s top-10 standing puts it in a very different position from the typical user. A Journal analysis found 67% of profits on Polymarket go to just 0.1% of accounts.
Experts warn the average user on both a sportsbook and a prediction market loses money, CNBC reported. Erica Sandberg, a consumer finance expert at BadCredit.org, said wins spread by word of mouth while losses stay quiet.
“You will not hear that they lost $800 last month,” she said. Sports typically make up about 80% to 90% of all bets placed on Kalshi.
Platforms say event contracts are financial derivatives, not wagers, while DraftKings and FanDuel typically call theirs entertainment. By arguing they are financial exchanges rather than sports gambling sites, platforms like Kalshi have avoided state gaming taxes, NPR reported.
They have also effectively lowered the sports betting age from 21 to 18. Sports event contracts, introduced in early 2025, reached users under 21 and entered states without legalized sportsbooks, including states “where betting on sports is illegal.”
Prediction markets do offer benefits. A working paper by Federal Reserve Board staff economists found Kalshi’s forecasts for interest rates and inflation can outperform professional forecasters.
They can also serve as financial tools. A shop selling cold, sugary drinks expects to earn more in hot weather, so it hedges by betting the weather will be cold.
On hot days, it loses the bet but sells more drinks. On cold days, it wins the bet while selling fewer, and the shop is the type of customer prediction markets want to highlight, but a rare one.
Wash trading is one question hanging over trading volume. It happens when traders buy and sell to themselves to make a platform look busier, and a Columbia University study estimated about 25% of Polymarket’s historical trading volume was likely wash trading.
Why Alcedine’s market draws Gen Z and scrutiny
The Northwestern Mutual study also found 80% of Gen Z respondents interested in high-risk investments, including prediction markets, sports betting and crypto, said it is because they feel financially behind. Shortcuts like these can widen that gap.
The Bank of America Institute found in a September report that Gen Z made up almost 50% of online betting activity in July, during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Gen Z outnumbered millennials for the first time.
A Betterment survey released in August found 52% of Gen Z respondents moved money meant for investing to sports betting. Another 26% saw wagering as part of their long-term financial strategy.
Dan Egan, director of behavioral finance and investing at Betterment, said betting increasingly appears alongside investments on the same app. He said it demands far more active management than long-term investing.
Platforms are spending big to reach younger users. Actor Timothée Chalamet, NBA player Giannis Antetokounmpo and soccer coach José Mourinho have starred in Kalshi ads.
Polymarket made one ad with over a dozen celebrities, including NBA star LeBron James, filmmaker Spike Lee and former NFL star Eli Manning. The Journal found it also paid mostly college-age creators to post undisclosed videos of fake bets.
Those bets were placed on near-identical copies of Polymarket’s website. One January video showed student George Makihara celebrating a supposed $100,000 win on a bet that President Donald Trump would say “McDonald’s” that month.
Trump never said it publicly in January. More than 50 real accounts that made the same bet on Polymarket lost.
Polymarket announced optional limits and a partnership with Birches Health. Kalshi committed $2 million over two years in May to the National Council on Problem Gambling.
“We’ve prioritized making Kalshi the safest venue for people to trade on,” spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said in a statement. Experts stress that not all sports betting is harmful.
“Lots of people do it to make things more interesting,” Egan said. Alcedine, meanwhile, built its standing in this market with almost no public profile.
